Research

Trust, sources, and selection

How we resolve markets, pick named outcomes, and keep an audit trail you can inspect—grounded in official Colosseum signals, not vibes.

Resolution hierarchy

Official Colosseum website announcement
Official Colosseum social (verified)
Official Discord (pinned, verified team)—fallback if #1–2 lag > 6h
Direct written confirmation from Colosseum—documented, last resort

Resolution proceeds once #1 or #2 is confirmed. SLA target: draft within 1h of announcement, multisig signed within 4h.

Invalidation & refunds

Markets invalidate if a category is cancelled or restructured, no winner is clear within 30 days of the expected announcement window, or legal/contractual blockers make payout impossible. Refunds are proportional; trading fees on invalidated markets are returned.

Named outcome selection (signals)

A project may appear as a named outcome when it meets at least 3 of 5 signals:

GitHub: >50 commits / 60d, >2 contributors
Social: >500 followers or strong hackathon post engagement
Ecosystem mentions from credible Solana voices
Verifiable on-chain history for team members
Public demo, testnet, or walkthrough

Binary markets

Binaries like “top 5” or a specific prize require the named-outcome bar, real public speculation, a plausible liquidity floor (~$1k volume judgment), and unambiguous resolution text—no “will do well” markets.

Auditability

Each resolution records resolver wallet, source URL or screenshot hash, timestamp, and payout vector. The program keeps an on-chain resolution log; the UI surfaces it on resolved markets.